14 In the 1950 to 1955 period, the average woman was expected to have about five children over the course of her lifetime. ![]() Over the last half century, the global fertility rate has fallen sharply. These hypothetical scenarios are intended to give readers a sense of how much impact various factors have on the projections. In some cases, this chapter also shows how different the projections would be if particular factors, such as migration, were not taken into account. It highlights important trends, discusses key assumptions about the future and acknowledges weak spots in the demographic data currently available on some countries and religious groups. This chapter presents an overview of each of these five main drivers of population change. In the case of religious groups, a fifth factor is switching – how many people choose to enter and leave each group, including how many become unaffiliated with any religion. ![]() When demographers attempt to forecast changes in the size of a population, they typically focus on four main factors: fertility rates, mortality rates (life expectancy), the initial age profile of the population (whether it is relatively old or relatively young to begin with) and migration.
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